The following is a report from the National Center for Energy Analytics written by Jonathan Lesser and Mitchell Rolling. Lesser is a Senior Fellow for Discovery Institute and a Senior Fellow for the National Center for Energy Analytics.
Executive Summary
Can electric grids that are powered primarily by wind and solar power provide reliable and affordable electricity when coupled with battery storage? Although advocates insist that it is feasible, this study demonstrates that a wind-solar-battery policy to meet electricity demand is physically implausible, cost-prohibitive, and unjustifiable on the basis of goals to reduce CO2 emissions.
While the quantity of battery storage has grown rapidly, it remains a miniscule share of total U.S. electricity consumption. At the beginning of 2026, total grid-scale battery storage could supply about 15 minutes of average U.S. electricity demand.
This study evaluated the physical and economic feasibility of building a reliable electric system primarily powered by wind, solar, and battery storage. The analysis used a model of the PJM Interconnection system, the nation’s largest grid operator, which covers 13 states and the District of Columbia and serves more than 67 million people.
Using PJM’s long-term forecast through 2045, the study estimated the quantities of wind, solar, and storage batteries that would be needed under three scenarios: renewables only (RO), which consisted of wind, solar, batteries, and existing nuclear plants while retiring all coal and natural gas generation; natural gas and nuclear (NGN), which comprised existing and new natural gas generators along with new nuclear plants; and NGN+B, which added battery storage to replace gas-fired generators during peak demand periods.
The analysis showed that to compensate for the intermittency of solar and wind, roughly tenfold more total generating capacity would be required by 2045 under the RO scenario than the NGN scenario. The additional capacity would be needed not only to serve daily or seasonal variations in supply and demand but also to accommodate well-documented wind and solar droughts—that is, multiday periods with little to no sunshine or wind.
The study also estimated the total ratepayer electricity costs. For the RO scenario, the total costs paid by PJM ratepayers over the next 20 years would exceed $4 trillion—even after accounting for savings on fossil fuels (see table ES-1).
Table ES-1. Total PJM Customer Costs ($ Billions)
Because the central rationale for pursuing an RO-type grid is to reduce carbon emissions, the study estimated the cost per ton of avoided emissions. The annual costs reached as high as $771 per ton of carbon avoided. For comparison, recent estimates of the social cost of carbon (i.e., the putative future impacts of carbon emissions) have ranged from about $180 per ton in 2025 to nearly $320 per ton in 2045.